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通过测算中国与36个国家和地区之间的贸易隐含碳排放余额,并对贸易隐含碳排放余额进行分解,全面揭示中国在全球碳排放贸易中的现状。主要结论包括:中国对大部分国家和地区的贸易隐含碳排放呈现顺差,是碳排放的净流入国;贸易隐含碳排放余额分解结果表明,技术效应和规模效应导致了中国贸易隐含碳排放顺差,而结构效应导致了逆差,且技术效应对中国贸易隐含碳排放顺差的影响最大。鉴于此,减少中国贸易隐含碳排放顺差的关键之处不在于控制出口规模,更重要的是改进减排技术,降低出口碳排放强度,实施强度减排。
By measuring the implicit trade balance of trade between China and 36 countries and regions and decomposing the trade’s implied carbon balance, we can fully reveal the status quo of China in the global carbon emissions trade. The main conclusions include: China’s trade to most countries and regions implies a trade-off of carbon emissions, which is a net inflow of carbon emissions; the trade-off of the implied carbon emissions balance shows that the technical effects and economies of scale lead to the implicit carbon of China’s trade Emissions surpluses, while structural effects have led to deficits, and the technical effects have the most impact on the implied carbon footprint of trade in China. In view of this, the crux of reducing the trade-related carbon footprint of China’s trade lies not in controlling the scale of exports, but more importantly in improving emission reduction technologies, reducing the intensity of carbon emissions in exports and implementing intensity reduction.