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基于黄河河源区干流各水文站和有关气象站、雨量站的气温、降水与径流观测资料,分析了该区域的气候变化特征与趋势及其水文响应.结果表明:在全球变暖的大背景下,自20世纪80年代后期开始西北地区西部新疆、甘肃河西走廊西部等地降水量显著增加、气候明显由“暖干”转向“暖湿”后,到21世纪初的年代中期后黄河源区降水量亦出现明显的增长,气候明显转向暖湿.最新的观测数据显示,2005年以来河源区平均年降水量已连续多年超过多年均值进入一个多雨期,河源区各断面来水量也于2008年后连续多年超过多年均值,进入一个连续丰水段,并于2012年达到了自1989年以后20余年来的最大值.这种变化的前景如何,目前尚不能确定,尚需对未来河源区气候在时间与空间上变化的速度和程度进一步观察和分析.根据对与该区域气候关系密切的东亚季风活动的研究成果以及对河源区气候与径流变化的观测事实及趋势推测,未来黄河源区气候向暖湿的转化在时间尺度上年代际的可能性较大.
Based on the observation data of the temperature, precipitation and runoff from the hydrological stations in the mainstream of the Yellow River and Heyuan rivers, and the related weather stations and rainfall stations, the characteristics and trends of climate change and their hydrological responses in this region are analyzed.The results show that under the background of global warming Since the late 1980s, precipitation in western Xinjiang, western Xinjiang and western Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province increased significantly. After the climate changed from warm and dry to warm and wet, The precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River also increased obviously, and the climate turned obviously warm and wet.The latest observational data show that the average annual precipitation in Heyuan has been in a rainy period for many years since 2005, and the water amount in each section of Heyuan After many years of consecutive years exceeding the multi-year average for many years after 2008, it has entered a continuous high-water section and reached its maximum in more than 20 years since 1989. How the prospect of such change is yet to be determined and remains uncertain for the future Heyuan district climate in time and space changes in the speed and extent of further observation and analysis.According to the climate in the region closely related to the East Asian monsoon research results and Observational facts and trends of climate change and the runoff of the source region of speculation, the future conversion of the Yellow River source region warm and humid climate on time scales more likely to decadal.