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新古典经济增长理论的趋同假说一直是经济学界探讨的热点问题。运用罗伯特.J.巴罗和萨拉-伊-马丁的经典趋同检验模型,选取1990～2009年的经济数据,分析探讨了东北三省以及其36个城市是否存在趋同现象。结果表明:①东北三省经济增长的σ趋同与趋异交替出现。②1990～2009年间东北三省并不存在长期绝对β趋同;在引入固定资产投资率、人口迁移率和地区虚拟变量等控制变量后的回归结果表明,在1990～2009年间东北三省存在着条件β趋同,但是由于条件β趋同意味着各个经济体是向着各自的稳态收敛,而每个经济体的稳态位置又有所差异,从长期来看各经济体间的不平等现象会仍然存在,经济差异也不会很快消失。
The convergence hypothesis of neoclassical economic growth theory has always been a hot topic explored by economists. Using the classical convergence test model of Robert J. Barrow and Sarah-i-Martin, we select the economic data from 1990 to 2009 and analyze whether there is convergence in the three northeastern provinces and their 36 cities. The results show that: ① the σ convergence and divergence of economic growth in the three northeast provinces alternate. ② The long-run absolute β convergence does not exist between the three provinces of Northeast China from 1990 to 2009; the regression results after introducing control variables such as fixed asset investment rate, population migration rate and regional dummy variables show that the conditional β convergence exists in the three northeastern provinces between 1990 and 2009, However, since the conditional β convergence means that each economy converges toward its steady state and the steady-state position of each economy varies, inequality among all economies will persist in the long run. Economic differences It will not disappear anytime soon.