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后金融危机时期如何保持中国出口常态增长成为当前中国外部经济面临的难题。本文基于CEPII-BACI数据库1995-2010年中国HS6分位数产品出口贸易数据,运用Logit回归模型研究先前的出口持续时间对于产品进入新市场的概率的影响。研究发现,出口持续时间可以促进产品进入新市场,且出口持续时间每增加一年,产品进入新市场的概率将提高0.17倍;更重要的是,出口持续时间与新市场进入之间存在一种“倒U型”曲线的关系,即在最初阶段出口持续时间会促进新市场的进入,但是这种影响随着时间递减,且当出口持续时间达到一个临界值时,这种积极的影响会消失。这一结论的政策含义在于,政府应适当鼓励企业深化现有贸易关系,这更有助于开拓新市场,进而保持中国出口常态增长。
After the financial crisis how to maintain the normal growth of China’s exports has become the current problems facing China’s external economy. Based on the CEPII-BACI database of China’s HS6 quantile export trade data from 1995 to 2010, this paper uses the Logit regression model to study the effect of previous export duration on the probability of a product entering a new market. The study found that the duration of exports can facilitate the entry of products into new markets and that for each additional year of export duration, the probability of products entering new markets will increase by 0.17 times. More importantly, there is a gap between the duration of exports and the entry of new markets “Inverted U ” curve, ie the exit duration in the first phase will facilitate the entry of new markets, but this effect diminishes over time and this positive effect when the exit duration reaches a critical value Will disappear The policy implication of this conclusion is that the government should encourage enterprises to deepen the existing trade relations properly, which will help develop new markets and maintain the normal growth of China’s exports.