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鉴于意外井碰导致的灾难性的人类和环境损害,一个关于井眼碰撞概率的评价提供了一种宝贵的风险管理方法。目前工业上使用的评估技术不少,但都有其局限性。解决问题的一个合理方法是开始就明确地估计井碰概率。本文提出了一种方法,以确定所钻井特定井段与邻井相交的可能性。通过对参考井上连续井段相关可能性的综合考虑,可以得到总的碰撞概率。井碰概率的估计是基于已测井眼轨迹及测量不确定性的知识,并以位置协方矩阵的形式来表达。本文研发出一个更精确的碰撞概率评估方法,此方法克服了以往方法的限制。实例表明,2口井在相交区域都是垂直的情况下,此新方法与平行和非平行井眼轨迹的分析结果相一致。
Given the catastrophic human and environmental damage caused by accidental well bumping, an evaluation of the probability of wellbore collision provides a valuable risk management method. At present, there are many evaluation techniques used in industry, but all have their limitations. A reasonable way to solve the problem is to begin with a clear estimate of the probability of a wellbore collision. This paper presents a method to determine the likelihood that a particular well section being drilled intersects an adjacent well. The total probability of collision can be obtained by a comprehensive consideration of the probability of the reference well’s continuous intervals. The probability of a wellbore collision is estimated based on knowledge of the wellbore trajectory and the uncertainty of the measurement and is expressed in the form of a location co-ordinate matrix. This article developed a more accurate collision probability assessment method, this method overcomes the limitations of the previous methods. The examples show that the new method is consistent with the analysis of both parallel and non-parallel borehole trajectories, provided that the two wells are all vertical in the intersecting region.