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一、引言过去20年,中国的房地产大部分时间都很火。可以说房地产建设是和出口一样强有力的经济增长“引擎”。居民收入快速增长和城市人口增加是推动房地产建设热潮的两个最重要因素,而90年代末的住房制度改革也有助释放了积压已久的对现代商品住房的巨大中国的房地产热潮能持续多久?或者说中国现在是否已出现一个全国性的房地产大泡沫并且即将破灭?我们认为巨大的泡沫目前还没有出现,但未来几年则很难避免。要想在房地产泡沫破灭前判断泡沫是否存在绝非易事。目前,如果参考一些常见的指
I. INTRODUCTION In the past two decades, most of China’s real estate was in fire. It can be said that real estate construction is as strong a source of economic growth as “exports.” The rapid growth of resident income and the increase of urban population are the two most important factors driving the upsurge of real estate construction. The reform of the housing system in the late 1990s has also helped release the backlog of long-awaited real estate upsurge in China’s huge modern commercial housing. Or does China now have a national real estate bubble that is about to burst? We do not think the huge bubble has yet emerged, but it will be hard to avoid in the next few years. It is by no means easy to judge whether the bubble exists before the real estate bubble burst. At present, if you refer to some common means