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猪肉是中国居民食物消费的主要品种之一,其价格上涨或下跌关系着消费者的切身利益。研究包括猪肉在内的生猪产业链产品的市场价格波动及传导,有助于生猪产业的健康发展。华东地区是中国生猪主产区之一,经济发展水平居全国前列,其生猪产业链市场价格波动的影响不仅局限于该地区,还波及全国生猪市场。利用华东地区2005年1月至2016年6月玉米价格、育肥猪配合饲料价格、仔猪价格、待宰活猪价格和去皮带骨猪肉价格月度数据组成的生猪产业链价格系统,通过Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数等方法实证分析了华东地区生猪产业链价格传导机制。结果表明,生猪产业链各环节价格存在长期均衡关系,反向误差修正能力偏弱;顺产业链价格传导较逆产业链更顺畅;生猪产业链价格传导存在1个月或两个月的时滞,活猪价格在整个产业链中起重要作用。最后提出政府应适当干预、加强价格公开和信息发布等发展思路。
Pork is one of the main varieties of food consumed by Chinese residents. The price rise or fall of pork is of vital interest to consumers. The research on the fluctuation and conduction of the market price of the pig industry chain products, including pork, will help the healthy development of the pig industry. East China is one of the main pig producing areas in China and its economic development ranks in the forefront of the whole country. The market price fluctuations in its pig industry chain are not only confined to the region, but also affected the pig market in the country. Based on the Johansen Cointegration Test, which uses the price of maize from January 2005 to June 2016 in East China, the price of feed for fattening pigs, the price of piglets, the price of live pigs to be slaughtered and the monthly price of peeled bone pork, , Impulse response function and other methods to empirically analyze the price transmission mechanism of pig industry chain in East China. The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the prices of various sectors of the pig industry chain and the weak ability of reverse error correction; the price transmission along the industry chain was smoother than that of the anti-industry chain; and the delay in transmission of the price of the pig industry chain was one month or two months Live pig prices play an important role in the whole industry chain. Finally, it is suggested that the government should intervene appropriately and strengthen the development ideas of price disclosure and information release.