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目的探讨累积和(CUSUM)模型在细菌性痢疾早期预警监测中的应用。方法数据来源于2007年北京市法定传染病报告系统细菌性痢疾报告数据和北京市2007年细菌性痢疾暴发疫情处理记录。预警运算使用美国CDC早期异常报告系统软件。结果 330个街道或乡镇共发出预警信息数为3743条,平均每个街道或乡镇发出11.3条预警信息,其中最少的为0条,最多的为25条,中位数为12,四分位间距为7。及时预警了2007年疫情记录中的两起细菌性痢疾暴发。结论累积和模型运算过程简单,预警频次和因预警产生的审核、流调工作量均在可接受范围内,可以应用在日常细菌性痢疾监测和防控工作中。
Objective To investigate the application of Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) model in early warning surveillance of bacterial dysentery. Methods The data are from the data of bacterial dysentery reported by the notifiable infectious disease reporting system in Beijing in 2007 and the record of treatment of outbreak of bacillary dysentery in Beijing in 2007. Early warning operation using the United States CDC early anomaly reporting system software. Results A total of 3,743 early-warning messages were issued by 330 sub-districts or townships, with an average of 11.3 early-warning messages per street or township, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 25, with a median of 12 and a quarter-to-quarter spacing For 7. In time, two outbreaks of bacterial dysentery in the 2007 outbreak were warned. Conclusions The accumulative and model operation process is simple, the frequency of early warning and audit due to early warning, flow control workload are within acceptable range, and can be applied in routine bacterial dysentery monitoring and prevention and control work.