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介绍了基于周期性变化时间序列的分析预报方法 ,针对灌区需水量变化规律 ,通过消除其趋势项和周期项 ,对残差序列进行模拟 ,经变换后建立灌区需水预报模型。分析表明 ,该法用于灌区作物需水预报有效、可行
The method of forecasting based on periodic change of time series is introduced. According to the changing regularity of water demand in irrigation district, the residual sequence is simulated by eliminating the trend items and periodic items. The forecasting model of water demand in irrigation area is established. Analysis shows that this method is effective and feasible for forecasting crop water demand in irrigated area