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把握农业信贷配给对农民消费的空间溢出特征,对撬动农村内需具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。利用1983-2013年31个省市的面板数据,在阐释农业信贷配给对农村居民消费空间溢出形成机理的基础上,采用静态空间面板模型和动态空间面板模型等空间计量模型及其估计方法,比较分析农业信贷配给对农村居民消费的空间溢出效应。研究发现,动态空间面板模型的系统GMM估计效果更佳;通过对模型估计结果的综合比较发现,邻近地区间的农村居民消费具有显著的空间正相关性,在经济增长的空间集聚和消费的示范效应下,农业信贷配给不仅会抑制本地区的农村居民消费,而且会阻碍邻近地区农村居民消费水平的提高。以增加农业信贷投入为目标的农村金融体制的增量改革,应当成为扩大本地及周边地区农村内需的政策选择。
Grasping the characteristics of spillover of peasants’ consumption by agricultural credit rationing has important theoretical and practical significance in leveraging rural domestic demand. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in 1983-2013, based on the explanation of the forming mechanism of agricultural credit rationing on the spillover of rural residents’ consumption, the spatial econometric models such as static spatial panel model and dynamic spatial panel model and their estimation methods are compared. Analyze the spillover effect of agricultural credit rationing on rural residents’ consumption. The research shows that the GMMM of the dynamic spatial panel model is more effective. Based on the comprehensive comparison of the model estimation results, it is found that there is a significant spatial positive correlation between rural residents’ consumption in the adjacent regions. In the spatial agglomeration and consumption demonstration of economic growth Effect, agricultural credit rationing will not only curb the consumption of rural residents in the region, but also hinder the improvement of rural residents in neighboring areas consumption levels. The incremental reform of the rural financial system aimed at increasing input in agricultural credit should be a policy choice to expand domestic demand in rural areas both locally and in the surrounding areas.