论文部分内容阅读
本文利用1992年第一季度到2009年第四季度的数据,用久期模型分析了相机性财政和货币政策对我国经济走出1992-2009年间四次衰退的作用。结果表明,相机性财政政策和货币政策的协调组合对我国经济走出衰退具有比较显著的正向作用,这两类政策的积极实施可以使经济复苏的概率分别提高21%和13%。但是,公共债务水平的上升会削弱相机性政策协调对经济走出衰退的刺激作用,特别是会严重制约积极财政政策的可持续性。
Using the data from the first quarter of 1992 to the fourth quarter of 2009, this paper analyzes the effect of the camera-based fiscal and monetary policies on China’s economy from the four recessions of 1992-2009 using the secular model. The results show that the coordinated combination of the camera-based fiscal policy and the monetary policy has a significant positive effect on our country’s economy from recession. The positive implementation of these two policies can increase the probability of economic recovery by 21% and 13% respectively. However, the rise of public debt will weaken the stimulus effect of the coordination of the camera policy on the economic recession, especially the sustainability of the proactive fiscal policy.