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本文基于向量自回归模型对1985～2008年货物与劳务税和企业所得税与民间投资三个时间序列进行计量分析,发现三个变量之间具有惟一的协整关系,货物与劳务税对民间投资有正效应,企业所得税对民间投资有负效应,税收变化是民间投资变化的格兰杰(Granger)原因。本文还利用脉冲响应函数分析了三个变量之间的动态关系。这为理解我国居高的投资率提供了一个税收分析新视角。
Based on the vector autoregressive model, this article analyzes the time series of goods and service tax, corporate income tax and private investment from 1985 to 2008 and finds that there is a unique cointegration relationship among the three variables. The tax on goods and services taxes on private investment Positive effects, corporate income taxes have a negative effect on private investment, and tax changes are Granger causes of changes in private investment. The paper also uses the impulse response function to analyze the dynamic relationship among the three variables. This provides a new tax analysis perspective for understanding China’s high investment rate.