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由于国内玉米阶段性供大于求格局进一步加剧,国家大幅下调玉米临储收购价格,并明确将取消临储收购政策,实行市场定价和价补分离改革,2016年以来,国内玉米价格持续下跌,价格同比大幅下降;全球玉米供求形势保持宽松,国际玉米价格低位运行;国内外玉米价差逐步缩小,中国玉米进口量同比大幅减少。展望后市,2016年国内玉米种植面积13年来将首次缩减,产量下降;消费需求有所恢复,但供大于求格局难以改变,后市价格总体继续看跌;国内外玉米价差有望进一步缩小,玉米及其替代品全年进口量有望明显减少。
As the pattern of oversupply of corn in domestic markets intensified further, the state drastically reduced the purchase price of corn temporary storage and explicitly canceled the policy of temporary storage and acquisition, and implemented market-price separation and price reform separately. Since 2016, the domestic corn prices have continued to drop. The price of corn Year-on-year; the global maize supply and demand remained loose with the international maize prices running at a low level; the domestic and foreign maize spreads gradually narrowed and the import volume of maize in China substantially decreased year on year. Looking ahead, in 2016, the domestic maize acreage will be reduced for the first time in 13 years and the output will drop. Consumption demand will recover. However, the pattern of supply exceeding demand will be hard to change. The market outlook will continue to be bearish. The domestic and international corn spreads are expected to further narrow. Corn and its replacement Product imports throughout the year is expected to significantly reduce.