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基于探讨广西蚕区家蚕普通种销售市场发展规律,为广西蚕业生产的宏观管理提供决策依据的目的,采用时间序列季节性乘积模型对家蚕普通种销售市场的发展变化规律进行了研究。依据广西蚕区2004-2006年36个月份的每月蚕种销售数量,运用社会科学统计软件包(SPSS)软件进行时间序列分析,建立了广西蚕区家蚕普通种市场销售规律的统计预测模型,即季节性乘积求和自回归滑动平均模型:AR IMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12,并通过白噪声检验。利用该模型对广西蚕区2006-2007年家蚕普通种每月销售量进行了预测,得到较为准确的预测结果。
Based on the discussion of the development of the common silkworm breeding market in Guangxi silkworm region and the decision-making basis for the macro-management of Guangxi silkworm production, the seasonal variation model of the silkworm was used to study the development and variation of the silkworm common silkworm sales market. According to the monthly sales quantity of silkworm eggs in Guangxi Silkworm Area for 36 months from 2004 to 2006, using the SPSS software to analyze the time series, we established the statistical forecasting model of silkworm market in Guangxi Province. That is, ARIM (0,1,1) × (0,1,1) 12, and pass the white noise test. Using this model, the monthly sales of common silkworm in Guangxi silkworm region from 2006 to 2007 were predicted, and more accurate prediction results were obtained.