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本文运用时序全局主成分分析与DEA模型,对2002-2010年四川4 2部门投入产出表进行数据库建模处理,对支柱产业进行动态选择及评价,探讨其演变动力及趋势。结果表明,四川产业结构在向“二三一”格局演变进程中,支柱产业对产业结构优化的作用日益显著;工业支柱产业仍保持其主导地位,电子信息业呈现良好发展态势;农业和服务业的投入产出效率存在帕累托改进空间;纯技术效率和规模效率是支柱产业演变的主要驱动力,其纯技术效率优于规模效率,但其科技进步指数普遍偏低。
In this paper, we use the sequential global principal component analysis and DEA model to model the input-output tables of 4 2 departments in Sichuan from 2002 to 2010, and make dynamic selection and evaluation of the pillar industries to explore their evolution dynamics and trends. The results show that in the evolution of Sichuan’s industrial structure toward the pattern of “231 ”, the pillar industries play an increasingly significant role in optimizing the industrial structure; the pillar industries remain their dominance and the electronic information industry shows a good momentum of development; The input-output efficiency of service industry has room for Pareto improvement. Pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are the main driving forces for the evolution of pillar industries. The pure technical efficiency is better than the scale efficiency, but the index of scientific and technological progress is generally low.