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目的探讨早期红细胞压积(Hct)、血糖变化对重症急性胰腺炎(SAP)的预测价值。方法回顾性分析187例急性胰腺炎(AP)患者的临床资料,评估入院24h内Hct和血糖变化对预测SAP的诊断效率。结果SAP组血糖较轻症急性胰腺炎(MAP)组明显升高,两组差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。早期血糖变化诊断SAP的敏感度为76.7%,特异度为42.4%,阳性预测值为28.45%,阴性预测值分别为85.92%,约登指数为0.191。结论早期红细胞压积预测AP严重程度无意义;早期血糖高低可作为预测AP严重程度的一项独立指标,即血糖不升高者发生SAP的可能性较小。
Objective To investigate the predictive value of early hematocrit (Hct) and blood glucose in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods The clinical data of 187 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) were retrospectively analyzed to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of Hct and blood glucose in predicting SAP in 24h after admission. Results In the SAP group, the blood glucose was significantly increased in patients with acute pancreatitis (MAP), the difference was statistically significant (P <0.05). The sensitivity of early diagnosis of SAP was 76.7%, the specificity was 42.4%, the positive predictive value was 28.45%, the negative predictive values were 85.92%, and the Youden index was 0.191. Conclusion Early hematocrit predicts the severity of AP is meaningless. The early stage blood glucose level may be used as an independent index to predict the severity of AP. That is, it is less likely that SAP will occur when blood glucose does not increase.