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2014年中国经济增速很可能低于2013年,甚至不排除低于7%的可能性。中国经济依然处于下行周期之中;正常情况下,应该没有需要引起特别关注的通胀问题;全社会固定资产投资增速10多年来有望首次低于20%;若干小泡沫例如地方政府债务泡沫、某些产能泡沫有可能破灭,并引发短暂的阵痛,但这样的阵痛有利于长期发展,有利于大局。如果经济增长方式真正得到转变,全社会都能切实注重增长质量,那2014年将成为我国经济中、长期发展后劲得到显著增强的一年。
China’s economic growth in 2014 is likely to be lower than in 2013, not even ruled out the possibility of less than 7%. China’s economy is still in the downward cycle; under normal circumstances, there should be no inflationary issues that require special attention. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society is expected to be below 20% for the first time in more than 10 years. A number of small bubbles such as the local government debt bubble, Some production foam may burst, and trigger a brief pain, but such pain is conducive to long-term development, is conducive to the overall situation. If the economic growth mode is truly changed and the entire society can effectively emphasize the quality of growth, that year will be a year in which the stamina in our economy will be significantly strengthened in the long term.