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目的评估2014年12月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,12月仍将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较高的月份之一,预计全国总报告事件数和病例数将较11月略有升高。我国存在埃博拉出血热病例输入的风险,但综合考虑疫情形势及我国的防控策略,发生境内疫情扩散的可能性低;但该病病死率极高,一旦出现输入性病例会造成较大的社会影响。近期新疆、江苏、浙江、广东省(自治区)相继发生人感染H7N9禽流感病例,且南方部分省份活禽市场活禽交易重现,病例有逐渐增多的可能。流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高,学校等人群聚集场所可能会陆续出现暴发疫情。我国北方地区已逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加。结论2014年12月全国突发公共卫生事件较11月将略有升高;需重点关注我国人感染H7N9禽流感、流行性感冒、诺如病毒导致的胃肠炎暴发,以及埃博拉出血热、EV-D68病毒疫情对我国的影响。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in December 2014 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results According to the recent monitoring data on infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combining with the analysis of the past public health emergencies and the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases, December will still be one of the months with a higher number of public health emergencies reported in the whole year It is estimated that the number of nationally reported cases and cases will rise slightly from November. In China, there is a risk of imported cases of Ebola haemorrhagic fever. However, considering the outbreak situation and our prevention and control strategy, there is a low possibility of spreading the epidemic in China. However, the case fatality rate is extremely high. In the event of imported cases, a large social influence. Recently, cases of human H7N9 bird flu have been reported in Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces (autonomous regions), and live poultry transactions in live poultry markets in some southern provinces have been reproduced and the number of cases has gradually increased. Epidemic influenza and other respiratory diseases will be seasonal increases, schools and other crowded places may be one after another outbreak. The northern part of our country has gradually entered the coal-fired heating season, and the non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning case will increase. Conclusions The national public health emergency in December 2014 will be slightly higher than that in November. It is necessary to pay close attention to the outbreak of gastroenteritis caused by H7N9 bird flu, influenza and Norovirus in China, and Ebola haemorrhagic fever , EV-D68 virus outbreak on our country.