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关于贸易开放和经济增长的关系在经济学界一直存在分歧,尤其表现在Rodriguez和Rodrik(2000)的评论中。在过去的十年中,数据的丰富和数据质量的提高,新的工具变量的发现以及新的计量方法的运用,使得该领域成为国际经济学的热点领域之一。本文首先介绍了贸易开放的内生性表现,然后从工具变量法、倍差法、配对法和其他识别方法等四个部分展开介绍近年来在这些领域中控制贸易开放的内生性方法,重点关注新的工具变量的构造。应用这些控制内生性方法的研究表明,贸易对于人均收入具有显著地正效应,并且实证结果具有稳健性。全球化对收入的总体影响中,约有一半的效应是来自于纯粹的货物贸易的影响,另一半是来自于全球化的其他因素,如自然人的流动、FDI等。寻找贸易开放的时变的工具变量是该领域未来研究的一个方向。
There has always been disagreement in economics about the relationship between trade openness and economic growth, especially in Rodriguez and Rodrik’s (2000) commentary. In the past decade, the abundance of data and improved data quality, the discovery of new instrumental variables, and the application of new measurement methods have made this area one of the hot topics in international economics. This paper first introduces the endogenous performance of trade openness, and then introduces the endogenous methods of controlling trade openness in these fields from four parts: instrumental variable method, double difference method, matching method and other identification methods, with a focus on new Construction of a tool variable. Studies using these methods of controlling endogenousity show that trade has a significant positive effect on per capita income and that the empirical results are robust. About half of the global impact on incomes comes from the sheer volume of goods trade, while the other half comes from other factors of globalization such as the movement of natural persons and FDI. Looking for a time-varying instrument of trade openness is one of the directions for future research in this area.