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本文根据世界范围内61个国家2010年的相关截面数据,运用多元线性回归模型,对影响木材消耗的因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:经济发展对木材消耗的影响为正,木材消耗指标与经济发展指标呈现一种向右上方倾斜的N型关系;林产品出口贸易与木材消耗的关系为负向,有利于减少木材消耗;林产品进口贸易与木材消耗的关系为正向,但相较于使用本国木材来说更有利于减少木材消耗;木材产量与木材消耗同方向变化,是影响木材消耗的最为显著的因素;林产品贸易规模、森林资源的丰富程度以及技术进步因素的影响不显著。据此,本文分别从世界和中国林业发展的角度提出了林产品贸易自由化、保持木材供应适度偏紧等相关建议。
Based on the cross-sectional data of 61 countries around the world in 2010, this paper uses multivariate linear regression model to analyze the factors that affect wood consumption. The results show that the economic development has a positive impact on wood consumption, timber consumption indicators and economy The development index shows a N-type relationship tilted to the upper right. The relationship between the export trade of forestry products and the consumption of timber is negative, which helps to reduce the timber consumption. The relationship between the import trade of forest products and the consumption of timber is positive, The use of domestic wood is more conducive to reducing the consumption of wood; the same direction of changes in timber production and wood consumption is the most significant factor affecting timber consumption; the trade scale of forest products, the richness of forest resources and the impact of technological progress are insignificant. Accordingly, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the liberalization of forest products trade and keeping the wood supply moderately tight from the perspective of the world and China’s forestry development respectively.