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本文运用生命周期模型,分析影响农民工家庭城市定居决策的若干因素,特别是农民工预期工作年限的作用。本文指出:第一,预期工作年限长短是影响农民工家庭城市定居决策的最重要的因素,其重要性超过了对农民工子女实行免费义务教育与向农民工家庭提供最低生活保障。第二,农民工父母连续工作到大约45岁,农民工家庭才具备让子女接受中等职业教育的经济能力。因此,如果希望推进农民工城市化,就必须从就业入手,解决农民工普遍的中年失业,特别是45岁以下农民工的失业问题。
This article uses the life cycle model to analyze several factors that affect the urban settlement decision-making of migrant rural households, especially the expected working years of rural migrant workers. This paper points out that: First, the expected length of service life is the most important factor affecting the settlement decision of migrant workers in urban areas, which is more important than the free compulsory education for migrant workers 'children and the guarantee of minimum living for migrant workers' families. Second, when migrant workers and parents work continuously for about 45 years, migrant workers' families have the economic capacity to allow their children to receive secondary vocational education. Therefore, if we want to promote the urbanization of migrant workers, we must start from employment to solve the widespread middle-aged unemployment among migrant workers, especially the unemployment problem among migrant workers under the age of 45.