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在南加州,地震灾害评价所面临的严重障碍是:如何描述远离已知主断层且历史地震活动性和古地震数据不足的地区地震的可能性。本文试图通过产生融合了地质学、古地震学、空间测量学、观测地震学及合成地震活动性等学科信息的地震灾害的“主控模型”(master model)图,以填补地震统计学的空白。目前的模型认为,在南加州大约地震矩释放的40％会发生在远离主断层的广阔分散地区,其结果是:在一个30a的时间内,几乎在从太平洋到圣安德烈斯断层东侧50km的所有地区,有一半对一半的可能经受0.1g或更大强度的震动,经受超过0.3g水平震动的概率为1/20。对于南加州的大部分居民,在30a间由中等强度震动造成的灾害大部分源于较小、较近且频繁发生的震级在5≤M≤7的地震,而不是源于大的圣安德烈斯断层地震(无论大地震的可能性如何)。
In Southern California, a serious obstacle to earthquake disaster assessment is how to describe the possibility of regional earthquakes that are far away from the known main fault and lacking historical seismicity and paleo-seismic data. This paper attempts to fill the void of seismology by producing a “master model” of an earthquake disaster that integrates information on geology, palaeoosemology, space surveying, seismology, and synthetic seismogenic activity . The current model suggests that about 40% of the earthquakes released in Southern California would occur in widely scattered areas far from the main fault, with the result that over a period of 30a, almost the eastern side of the Pacific from the San Andrés fault In all areas of 50km, half and half are likely to experience shocks of 0.1g or greater and have a 1/20 probability of experiencing vibration exceeding 0.3g. For the majority of residents in Southern California, most of the 30-day disasters caused by moderate-intensity shocks stemmed from smaller, more recent and frequent earthquakes of magnitude 5 ≤ M ≤ 7 rather than from the greater SANDA Reese Fault Earthquake (no matter what the likelihood of a major earthquake).