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煤炭消耗问题成为影响江苏经济发展的重要因素,解决好未来江苏巨大的煤炭供需缺口,分析预测江苏未来的煤炭消费,可以为江苏战略性能源开发供应提供依据,从而保证全省经济社会的绿色发展。利用eviews分析并处理江苏省1985-2010年各相关历史数据,得到ARIMA模型的相关参数(p、q、d),运用时间序列分析法(ARIMA模型)对江苏省未来三大化石能源消费量进行预测,进而利用SPSS模拟曲线并进行预测得到未来十年的数据进行研究。
The problem of coal consumption has become an important factor affecting the economic development of Jiangsu Province. Solving the huge coal supply and demand gap in Jiangsu in the future and analyzing and forecasting future coal consumption in Jiangsu can provide the basis for the development and supply of strategic energy in Jiangsu so as to ensure the green development of the province’s economy and society . Using eviews to analyze and process relevant historical data of Jiangsu province from 1985 to 2010, the relevant parameters (p, q, d) of ARIMA model were obtained and the consumption of the three major fossil fuels in Jiangsu Province was analyzed using time series analysis (ARIMA model) Forecast, and then use the SPSS simulation curve and forecast the data for the next ten years to study.