论文部分内容阅读
目的利用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型动态研究迁安市乙型病毒性肝炎的发病趋势,探讨合理的预测模型并预测,为该地区制定乙肝的预防监测措施提供决策依据。方法收集该市2004~2011年逐月乙肝疫情资料,利用Excel2003建立乙肝发病率灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,进行模型精度评价及外推预测。结果该市2004~2011年乙肝发病率呈现波动性上升趋势;建立GM(1,1)模型并经后验差检验(C=0.435,P=0.821)及残差检验模型精度合格,预测该市2012年逐月乙肝发病率,2012年乙肝发病率最低为14.340/10万,最高为19.195/10万。结论利用Excel电子表格实现了乙肝发病趋势分析和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型建模、评价及预测,提示2012年乙肝发病呈小幅上升趋势。
OBJECTIVE: To dynamically study the trend of hepatitis B in Qian’an City using the gray system GM (1,1) model, to explore a reasonable prediction model and predict it, and to provide a decision-making basis for the development of hepatitis B prevention and control measures in this area. Methods The epidemic data of hepatitis B in each month from 2004 to 2011 in the city were collected. The gray system GM (1,1) model of incidence of hepatitis B was established by Excel2003, and the precision and extrapolation of model were evaluated. Results The incidence of hepatitis B increased from 2004 to 2011 in the city. The GM (1,1) model was established and the accuracy of the model was verified by posterior difference test (C = 0.435, P = 0.821) The monthly incidence of hepatitis B in 2012 is the lowest in 2012 with the incidence of hepatitis B being 14.340 / 100000 and the highest being 19.195 / 100000. Conclusions The trend analysis of hepatitis B and the modeling, evaluation and prediction of GM (1,1) model of gray system were realized by using Excel spreadsheet, which indicated that the incidence of hepatitis B in 2012 showed a slight upward trend.