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针对煤层气钻井工程项目中的危险因素以及可能发生的钻机工程项目事故的特征,需要利用科学的方法,建立适合煤层气钻井工程项目特点的风险评价体系。本文采用模糊层次分析法,评价煤层气钻井工程项目风险。通过确定煤层气钻井工程项目风险指标体系,运用层次分析法得到其权重,并采用经济学中的ABC分类法,对风险因素进行分类,确定出重点管理的风险因素及一般管理的风险因素。利用风险隶属矩阵,多因素模糊层次评判,采用加权平均法,确定最终结果,计算出山西晋城寺河矿煤层气钻井工程项目的总体风险值为4.1,属于风险很大的一类。
According to the risk factors in the CBM drilling project and the characteristics of possible rig accidents, it is necessary to establish a risk assessment system suitable for the characteristics of the CBM drilling project by using scientific methods. In this paper, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applied to evaluate the risk of CBM drilling project. Through determining the risk index system of CBM drilling project, using AHP to get its weight, using the ABC classification method in economics to classify the risk factors and determine the key management risk factors and general management risk factors. Using the risk membership matrix, multi-level fuzzy hierarchy evaluation, using the weighted average method to determine the final result, the total risk value of the coalbed methane drilling project of Jincheng Sihe Mine in Shanxi Province is calculated to be 4.1, which belongs to a category of great risk.