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针对煤矿底板突水的不确定、非线性特征,引入多层次、多准则的突变理论,在对滕北矿区16煤层底板突水危险性评价指标体系分析的基础上,基于突变理论的突变级数法,对评价指标进行多层次分解,利用突变理论与多相模糊统计方法相结合产生突变隶属函数,由归一化公式进行综合突变级数计算,建立底板突水评价模型,共完成矿区9个地段的突水危险性评价。实践证明该模型能够减少数据处理的复杂性,避免人为确定权重的主观性,为煤层底板突水危险性评价提供了新的思路。
Aiming at the uncertain and nonlinear characteristics of water inrush in coal mine floor, the multi-level and multi-criterion catastrophe theory is introduced. Based on the analysis of index system of risk assessment of water inrush from 16 coal seam floor in Tengbei mining area, Method, the evaluation index is decomposed at multiple levels. Mutation theory and polyphase fuzzy statistical method are combined to produce the mutation membership function. The normalized formula is used to calculate the abrupt change series. The evaluation model of the floor water bursting is established, and a total of 9 Evaluation of Water Inrush Hazard in Lot. Practice has proved that this model can reduce the complexity of data processing and avoid the subjectivity of weight determination, which provides a new idea for the risk assessment of water inrush from seam floor.