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目的:深入研究卫生保健商品或服务的相对价格对人均卫生费用的短期与长期影响。方法:基于1986—2009年宏观时间序列数据,在考虑人均GDP、政府卫生投入等因素前提下,采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)与误差修正模型(ECM)进行分析。结果与结论:⑴卫生保健商品相对价格对于人均实际卫生费用的影响要明显大于卫生保健服务相对价格和政府卫生投入比例增长率的影响;⑵相对于其他消费品,卫生保健商品相对价格的持续下降会促使人均实际卫生费用增长率也呈现下降趋势;卫生保健服务相对价格的下降可能会刺激人们卫生保健服务需求,提高实际人均卫生费用的增长率;⑶政府卫生投入比例的上升会导致实际人均卫生费用增长率增加,产生明显的正向效应。
Purpose: To study in depth the short-term and long-term effects of the relative price of health care goods or services on per capita health costs. Methods: Based on the macroscopic time series data from 1986 to 2009, ARDL and ECM were used to analyze the factors such as per capita GDP and government investment in health. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: (1) The relative price of health care products has a significantly greater effect on the actual per capita health expenditure than the relative growth of health care services and the proportion of government health investment. (2) The relative decline of the relative prices of health care products relative to other consumer products The per capita real health expenditure growth rate also shows a downward trend; the relative decline in the price of health care services may stimulate demand for health services and increase the actual growth rate of per capita health expenditure; (3) The increase in the proportion of government health expenditure will lead to the actual per capita health costs The increase in the rate of growth has a clear positive effect.