论文部分内容阅读
本文对中国经济是否通过了刘易斯转折点这个问题进行了实证分析。在文章的前半部分我们利用一些政府统计数据来研究中国城镇劳动力市场的变化,在文章的后半部分我们进行了实证分析并依此来讨论中国农业剩余劳动力和经济转折点的问题。我们估计了农业生产函数并计算了边际劳动生产率。我们还进行了分地区分时期的分析,并把有关中国的分析结果与日本经济发展的经验作了比较。从实证分析中我们得出了如下几个主要结论:第一,有关宏观劳动力市场的数据没有支持劳动力不足之说。例如城镇失业率没有出现下降趋势,农工间的工资差距在21世纪初期甚至有所扩大。第二,在21世纪初期的中国,农业中依然存在着大量剩余劳动力,中国经济还没有通过刘易斯转折点。第三,在1990～1995年、1996～2000年、2001～2005年这三个期间,剩余劳动力的规模出现了下降的趋势,提示了中国农业的边际劳动生产率在逐渐上升,中国经济在向转折点接近。第四,我们还发现了存在边际劳动生产率和剩余劳动力规模的地区间差距,该结果提示了通过经济转折点的时间会存在地区性差异。
This essay empirically analyzes whether China’s economy passed the turning point of Lewis. In the first half of the article, we used some government statistics to study the changes in China’s urban labor market. In the second half of the article, we conducted an empirical analysis and discussed the issue of China’s agricultural surplus labor force and economic turning point. We estimate the agricultural production function and calculate the marginal labor productivity. We also carried out a breakdown of periods and compared the results of the analysis on China with the experience of Japan’s economic development. From the empirical analysis, we draw the following main conclusions: First, the data on the macro-labor market do not support the lack of labor. For example, there is no downward trend in the unemployment rate in urban areas. The wage gap between agricultural workers and industrial workers even expanded in the early 21st century. Second, in the early 21st century, China still has a large surplus of labor in agriculture and its economy has not passed the Lewis turning point. Third, during the three periods of 1990-1995, 1996-2000 and 2001-2005, the scale of surplus labor showed a declining trend, suggesting that the marginal productivity of China’s agriculture was gradually rising. As China’s economy turned to a turning point Close to Fourthly, we also found the regional disparities with marginal labor productivity and surplus labor force. The results suggest that there will be regional differences in the passage of economic turning point.