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As the world readies for the start of the London 2012 Summer Olympic Games, teams from around the world are flying to London to compete and win honor for their countries. In the race for medals, the United States and China are headed for a photo finish.
Will Team China repeat its stellar performance in Beijing four years ago by sweeping up the most gold medals? Researchers at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth think so. A recent prediction forecast China winning the most gold medals, followed by the United States and host country, Great Britain. Team USA will likely win the most overall medals, followed by China and Russia.
“In 2008, there was 95 percent accuracy[with the Dartmouth predictions]. The model is very precise in determining the rank of countries and sometimes it’s spot on with determining the actual medal counts as well,”researcher Emily Williams told National Public Radio.
Not everyone agrees with the prediction. A new report by investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the United States will top the list with 37 gold medals and lead the total tally with 108 medals overall. China is expected to grab 33 gold medals in London, and Great Britain is likely to haul in 30.
“Our forecasts reflect two very clear patterns revealed in our analysis. First, countries with superior growth environments and higher incomes are expected to win more medals, and, second, there is also a marked‘host effect’ that will likely bump up the number of medals attained by Great Britain,”said Goldman Sachs economists and study authors José Ursúa and Kamakshya Trivedi. The “host effect” led to Team China’s superior performance in the 2008 Olympics, they said.
What events are most likely to yield Olympic gold for U.S. athletes? Basketball and swimming are some easy picks, and the women’s gymnastic team is a strong favorite. There also may be a few surprises in store, however. In the meantime, Americans are awaiting the July 27 opening ceremonies with great anticipation.
Track and field
The U.S. men’s and women’s relay teams have a “golden” opportunity ahead of them in London. Team USA is expected to win both men’s and women’s 4x400 meter relays if they run a clean race. The men’s squad was initially disqualified this March at the World Indoor Championships for an illegal exchange. The women’s squad squeaked out a win in the trials.
The forecast is a little grimmer for the 4x100 squads. The men’s relay will be looking for redemption after a loss to Jamaica in 2008, and the women’s squad hasn’t won gold since 1996. All signs point to an end to the drought, since no single country has been able to dominate the 4x100 since the U.S. women’s team won four straight gold medals from 1980 to 1992. U.S. sprinter Tyson Gay goes up against three Jamaican speedsters in the 100 meter:the world’s fastest man, Usain Bolt, followed by Yohan Blake and Asafa Powell. As the world record holder, Bolt is expected to snag gold—if Blake doesn’t repeat his win from the Brazilian trials. That leaves the bronze medal up for grabs by Team USA.
American female sprinter Allyson Felix has proven her ability to run world-class times, and hopes to improve on the two consecutive silver medals she won in the 200-meter race.
Overall, the best chances for the United States to win gold medals in track and field are represented by LaShawn Merritt, defending champion in the 400-meter event, and Ashton Eaton, star decathlete. Morgan Uceny is also hoped to become the first American woman to medal in the 1,500-meter race. The 27-year-old would have won gold at last year’s World Championships, but was tripped up by a competitor inside the last 500 meters.
Gymnastics
Five female gymnasts on Team USA are making their Olympic debut in London, and they are all hoping for a third consecutive individual all-around championship. The odds are good. Jordyn Wieber is the defending all-around world champion and Gabrielle Douglas finished first in the Olympic team trials. The United States is also heavily favored to take home a team gold medal.
Aly Raisman is expected to take honors in the balance beam, whereas the floor exercise may be too close to call, with both Wieber and Douglas expected to hand in winning performances.
The U.S. men’s team hopes to be the first to win gold since the 1984 Los Angeles Games. The well-seasoned squad is considered one of the favorites to win the team gold, led by Danell Leyva and John Orozco. Jake Dalton, the reigning champion on the collegiate level, is expected to have a strong showing in the floor and vault events.
“I think overall —men and women combined—it could be the best men’s and women’s team we’ve ever fielded,” Peter Vidmar, who won two gold medals with the 1984 Olympic team, told The New York Times. And that’s a big statement because we’ve been so good lately.”
Basketball and volleyball
After watching a pre-Olympic exhibition match this week against Brazil, President Barack Obama predicted a repeat of the 1992“Dream Team” that led the United States to win gold in the men’s basketball event. The team is heavily stocked with NBA (National Basketball Association) professionals like LeBron James, who led the team by scoring 30 points in the pre-Olympic match. As for the women’s team, Obama told reporters they are “as dominant, if not more dominant” than the men. The U.S. women’s team beat Britain in an exhibition match this week, led by first-time Olympian Maya Moore.
Team USA is also the top-ranked women’s volleyball team in the world heading into the London Games. If they win, it will be the first-ever gold medal in women’s volleyball for the United States. The team is eager to make up for a loss to Brazil in the final match of the 2008 Beijing Games.
Beach volleyball legends Misty MayTreanor and Kerri Walsh-Jennings will be fighting to defend their past two Olympic golds, and they will face strong challengers from Brazil and China to do so.
Diving and swimming
With seven races scheduled at the Games, star swimmer Michael Phelps is expected to easily earn the three medals he needs to surpass Soviet gymnast Larisa Latynina as the most decorated Olympian of all time. Phelps said he plans to retire after the London Games. American swimmer Missy Franklin is also expected to make a strong showing and could become the first American female athlete to win seven medals at one Olympiad.
Team USA will have to fight off the world’s newest swimming power—China. China won six medals at the 2008 Games and 14 swimming medals at the 2011 FINA World Championships, second only to the United States.
In diving, the United States has not won a medal since the Sydney Games in 2000, but that fate may be avoided with Troy Dumais, who is headed to the Olympic Games for the fourth time. Dumais won silver with Kristian Ipsen in the synchronized springboard at the 2009 Rome World Championship and gold at the 2011 USA Diving Winter National Championships.
“[U.S.] diving is in a real tough spot,”five-time Olympic medalist Greg Louganis told an NBC affiliate in Miami. “We haven’t won a medal since 2000.”
Louganis has returned to the Olympic arena for the first time since retiring from diving in 1988, as a mentor for American divers. He has his work cut out for him. Chinese divers took home seven of the eight gold medals available in Beijing in 2008.
(The author is a freelance writer living in New York City)
Will Team China repeat its stellar performance in Beijing four years ago by sweeping up the most gold medals? Researchers at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth think so. A recent prediction forecast China winning the most gold medals, followed by the United States and host country, Great Britain. Team USA will likely win the most overall medals, followed by China and Russia.
“In 2008, there was 95 percent accuracy[with the Dartmouth predictions]. The model is very precise in determining the rank of countries and sometimes it’s spot on with determining the actual medal counts as well,”researcher Emily Williams told National Public Radio.
Not everyone agrees with the prediction. A new report by investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the United States will top the list with 37 gold medals and lead the total tally with 108 medals overall. China is expected to grab 33 gold medals in London, and Great Britain is likely to haul in 30.
“Our forecasts reflect two very clear patterns revealed in our analysis. First, countries with superior growth environments and higher incomes are expected to win more medals, and, second, there is also a marked‘host effect’ that will likely bump up the number of medals attained by Great Britain,”said Goldman Sachs economists and study authors José Ursúa and Kamakshya Trivedi. The “host effect” led to Team China’s superior performance in the 2008 Olympics, they said.
What events are most likely to yield Olympic gold for U.S. athletes? Basketball and swimming are some easy picks, and the women’s gymnastic team is a strong favorite. There also may be a few surprises in store, however. In the meantime, Americans are awaiting the July 27 opening ceremonies with great anticipation.
Track and field
The U.S. men’s and women’s relay teams have a “golden” opportunity ahead of them in London. Team USA is expected to win both men’s and women’s 4x400 meter relays if they run a clean race. The men’s squad was initially disqualified this March at the World Indoor Championships for an illegal exchange. The women’s squad squeaked out a win in the trials.
The forecast is a little grimmer for the 4x100 squads. The men’s relay will be looking for redemption after a loss to Jamaica in 2008, and the women’s squad hasn’t won gold since 1996. All signs point to an end to the drought, since no single country has been able to dominate the 4x100 since the U.S. women’s team won four straight gold medals from 1980 to 1992. U.S. sprinter Tyson Gay goes up against three Jamaican speedsters in the 100 meter:the world’s fastest man, Usain Bolt, followed by Yohan Blake and Asafa Powell. As the world record holder, Bolt is expected to snag gold—if Blake doesn’t repeat his win from the Brazilian trials. That leaves the bronze medal up for grabs by Team USA.
American female sprinter Allyson Felix has proven her ability to run world-class times, and hopes to improve on the two consecutive silver medals she won in the 200-meter race.
Overall, the best chances for the United States to win gold medals in track and field are represented by LaShawn Merritt, defending champion in the 400-meter event, and Ashton Eaton, star decathlete. Morgan Uceny is also hoped to become the first American woman to medal in the 1,500-meter race. The 27-year-old would have won gold at last year’s World Championships, but was tripped up by a competitor inside the last 500 meters.
Gymnastics
Five female gymnasts on Team USA are making their Olympic debut in London, and they are all hoping for a third consecutive individual all-around championship. The odds are good. Jordyn Wieber is the defending all-around world champion and Gabrielle Douglas finished first in the Olympic team trials. The United States is also heavily favored to take home a team gold medal.
Aly Raisman is expected to take honors in the balance beam, whereas the floor exercise may be too close to call, with both Wieber and Douglas expected to hand in winning performances.
The U.S. men’s team hopes to be the first to win gold since the 1984 Los Angeles Games. The well-seasoned squad is considered one of the favorites to win the team gold, led by Danell Leyva and John Orozco. Jake Dalton, the reigning champion on the collegiate level, is expected to have a strong showing in the floor and vault events.
“I think overall —men and women combined—it could be the best men’s and women’s team we’ve ever fielded,” Peter Vidmar, who won two gold medals with the 1984 Olympic team, told The New York Times. And that’s a big statement because we’ve been so good lately.”
Basketball and volleyball
After watching a pre-Olympic exhibition match this week against Brazil, President Barack Obama predicted a repeat of the 1992“Dream Team” that led the United States to win gold in the men’s basketball event. The team is heavily stocked with NBA (National Basketball Association) professionals like LeBron James, who led the team by scoring 30 points in the pre-Olympic match. As for the women’s team, Obama told reporters they are “as dominant, if not more dominant” than the men. The U.S. women’s team beat Britain in an exhibition match this week, led by first-time Olympian Maya Moore.
Team USA is also the top-ranked women’s volleyball team in the world heading into the London Games. If they win, it will be the first-ever gold medal in women’s volleyball for the United States. The team is eager to make up for a loss to Brazil in the final match of the 2008 Beijing Games.
Beach volleyball legends Misty MayTreanor and Kerri Walsh-Jennings will be fighting to defend their past two Olympic golds, and they will face strong challengers from Brazil and China to do so.
Diving and swimming
With seven races scheduled at the Games, star swimmer Michael Phelps is expected to easily earn the three medals he needs to surpass Soviet gymnast Larisa Latynina as the most decorated Olympian of all time. Phelps said he plans to retire after the London Games. American swimmer Missy Franklin is also expected to make a strong showing and could become the first American female athlete to win seven medals at one Olympiad.
Team USA will have to fight off the world’s newest swimming power—China. China won six medals at the 2008 Games and 14 swimming medals at the 2011 FINA World Championships, second only to the United States.
In diving, the United States has not won a medal since the Sydney Games in 2000, but that fate may be avoided with Troy Dumais, who is headed to the Olympic Games for the fourth time. Dumais won silver with Kristian Ipsen in the synchronized springboard at the 2009 Rome World Championship and gold at the 2011 USA Diving Winter National Championships.
“[U.S.] diving is in a real tough spot,”five-time Olympic medalist Greg Louganis told an NBC affiliate in Miami. “We haven’t won a medal since 2000.”
Louganis has returned to the Olympic arena for the first time since retiring from diving in 1988, as a mentor for American divers. He has his work cut out for him. Chinese divers took home seven of the eight gold medals available in Beijing in 2008.
(The author is a freelance writer living in New York City)