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针对模拟训练系统对CGF真实性的要求,从号手的操作技能入手,建立可以反映真实训练水平的号手操作技能模型,并在分析操作技能相关原理和规律的基础上,采用时间序列分析的方法对其进行预测。采用了指数平滑预测模型,详细分析了其原理,并针对其在实际应用中的缺陷进行了改进。最后,通过两个实际案例验证了模型的可用性和可信性。所建模型反映了号手的操作技能,为模拟训练系统中CGF的真实性研究提供新的思路和方法。
According to the requirement of simulation training system for the authenticity of CGF, starting with the trumpeter’s operational skills, the Trumpeter skill model which can reflect the true training level is established. On the basis of analyzing the related principles and rules of operational skills, the time series analysis Method to predict it. Exponential smoothing prediction model is adopted, its principle is analyzed in detail, and its defects in practical application are improved. Finally, two practical cases are used to verify the usability and credibility of the model. The model reflects the trumpeter’s operational skills and provides a new idea and method for simulating the authenticity of CGF in training system.