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以黑河流域上游为研究对象,通过对山区自然产水区的产汇流机理的研究,基于分布式水文模型集成环境的开发思想,利用MMS(modular modeling system)模型库中与降水径流相关的模块,通过综合各种产流(包括超渗、蓄满产流)机理、并且根据寒区产汇流的特点对USGS开发的流域PRMS(precipitation-runoff models)模型进行了改进,增加了土壤水运动中降雨入渗补给的多层土壤滞后效应模块以及积雪融雪和冻土面积识别模型,建立了适合于寒区流域的分布式PRMS模型。利用该模型对黑河上游出山径流过程进行了模拟与预报,模型研究结果表明:利用MMS建立的黑河上游改进的PRMS模型不仅完全可以模拟和预测黑河上游的产汇流过程,在考虑了冻土的情况下,预测年出山径流量误差小于2.7%;而且模型可以对黑河上游径流组成成分进行分析计算,对黑河上游产汇流机理做进一步阐明。利用改进的PRMS模型,预测分析了黑河上游未来气候和土地覆盖变化情景下流域出山径流变化的趋势,为黑河流域水资源合理利用和管理提供科学依据。
Taking the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin as the research object, through the research on the production and sinking mechanism of the natural water-producing areas in mountainous areas, based on the development idea of the integrated environment of distributed hydrological models and using the modules related to precipitation runoff in the MMS (modular modeling system) Based on the mechanism of various runoff production (including hyperosmotic and runoff generation), and based on the features of catchment and runoff production in the cold region, the precipitation-runoff models (PRMS) developed by the USGS were improved to increase the rainfall during soil water movement Multi-layered soil hysteresis effect module for infiltration and recharge, snow melting and permafrost area identification model, a distributed PRMS model suitable for cold basins was established. The model is used to simulate and forecast the runoff process in the upper reaches of the Heihe River. The results of the model study show that the PRMS model improved by MMS in the upper reaches of the Heihe River can not only simulate and predict the runoff process in the upper Heihe River, , The annual error of annual runoff is predicted to be less than 2.7%. Moreover, the model can be used to analyze and calculate the composition of runoff in the upper reaches of Heihe River, and further elucidate the mechanism of runoff generation in the upstream of Heihe River. By using the improved PRMS model, the trend of runoff change in the downstream of the Heihe River in future climate and land cover change scenarios is predicted and analyzed, which provides a scientific basis for the rational utilization and management of water resources in Heihe River Basin.