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为研究金川二矿区采场整体围岩的稳定性,采用数值模拟方法研究影响采场整体围岩的稳定性的13个因素之间的关系。采取最小二乘法对试验结果进行多元线性回归,获得4个评价指标函数。利用可靠度理论进行采场稳定性可靠度分析和失稳风险预测,获得采场围岩的能量释放率(ERR)、地表沉降率(SDR)、采场围岩和充填体收敛率(DCR)和平均屈服率(AFR)4个评价指标,对应的失稳风险分别为7.5%,0.78%,3.02%和0.32%。采用4个评价指标的串联模式系统综合分析采场围岩整体稳定性,计算出采场整体失稳风险概率为11.28%,表明采场整体存在失稳风险,需要进一步监测岩体移动。
In order to study the stability of surrounding rock in the mining area of Jinchuan No.2 mining area, numerical simulation was used to study the relationship between 13 factors affecting the stability of the surrounding rock in the stope. The least squares method was used to perform multiple linear regression on the test results to obtain four evaluation index functions. Reliability analysis of stope stability and prediction of instability risk are carried out by using reliability theory to obtain the energy release rate (ERR), surface settlement rate (SDR), surrounding rock mass and convergence rate (DCR) And average yield (AFR), the corresponding instability risks were 7.5%, 0.78%, 3.02% and 0.32% respectively. The overall stability of the surrounding rock of the stope is analyzed synthetically by four series of evaluation indexes. The probability of stope instability is calculated to be 11.28%, which indicates that there is a risk of destabilization in the stope and further monitoring of rock mass movement is needed.