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为提高业务中对营口辽河港大风的预报能力,本文以T639模式输出资料和西炮台国家级气象观测站风资料为依托,运用双重检验的多元线性逐步回归法,建立西炮台站不同季节、起报时次、预报时次的风速预报方程,并对各方程的模拟能力进行检验。结果表明,所有季节、起报时次、预报时次的预报方程,其模拟效果均明显优于原T639模式;6级及以上大风情况下,预报方程的模拟效果要明显优于原T639模式。
In order to improve the ability of forecasting the gale of Yingkou Liaohe Port in Yingkou, this paper, based on the output data of T639 and the wind data of the national meteorological observatory in West Fort Taiwan, uses the multiple linear stepwise regression of double test to establish the station of west gunnacle station in different seasons, Time-reporting time, forecast time wind speed prediction equation, and to simulate the ability of the equation test. The results show that the forecasting equations of all seasons, time of report and time of forecasting are obviously better than the original T639 model. The simulation results of forecasting equations are obviously better than the original T639 model under the condition of gale of 6 and above.