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“你可能短期地欺骗所有的人,也可能长期地欺骗一部分人,但你决不可能长期地欺骗所有的人”。这是美国经济学家罗伯特·E·卢卡斯经常引用的美国谚语,也是其“理性预期假说”的通俗诠释。卢卡斯正是把“理性预期假说”应用于宏观经济计量模型,论证了理性预期与宏观经济政策效应之间的关系,从而获得了一九九五年的诺贝尔经济学奖。瑞典皇家科学院的授奖词说,卢卡斯发展和运用了“理性预期假说”,改革了宏观经济分析的基础,从而加深了公众对于宏观经济政策
“You may deceive all people in the short run or may deceive some people for a long time, but you can never cheat all over the long term.” This is a commonly used American proverb quoted by American economist Robert E. Lucas and a common interpretation of his “rational expectation hypothesis.” It is Lucas who applies the “rational expectation hypothesis” to the macroeconomic econometric model and demonstrates the relationship between rational expectations and the effects of macroeconomic policies, thus winning the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1995. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences award said that Lucas developed and applied the “rational expectation hypothesis” and reform the foundation of macroeconomic analysis, thereby deepening the public’s understanding of macroeconomic policies