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根据宏观经济模型的测算结果,1983年—1999年期间,中国经济总量(GDP)对外商直接投资总量的综合弹性比为0.121。由于这一时期外商直接投资年均增长速度达到22％,照此推算,同时期中国经济年均9.7％的增长速度中,大约有2.7个百分点来自外商直接投资的直接、间接贡献,外商直接投资增长对中国经济增长的综合贡献率为27.8％。我国政府提出的“十五”时期年均经济增长目标是7％,如果在今后几年,外商直接投资能够继续保持与过去20年相近的贡献率,则其年均增长速度至少应当达到16％左右的水平。
According to the results of the macroeconomic model, the comprehensive elasticity ratio of China’s total economic output to total foreign direct investment was 0.121 between 1983 and 1999. Since the average annual growth rate of foreign direct investment in this period reached 22%, according to the projections, about 2.7% of China’s average annual economic growth rate of 9.7% was attributable to the direct and indirect contribution of foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment The overall contribution rate of growth to China’s economic growth is 27.8%. The target of an average annual economic growth of 7% proposed by our government for the period of the Tenth Five-Year Plan is 7%. If FDI can continue to maintain its contribution rate similar to the past 20 years in the coming years, its average annual growth rate should reach at least 16% About the level.