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文章简要地介绍了灰色系统有关理论;通过具体统计获得了1979～1986年我国图书出版种数的数据序列,用一阶线性微分拟合模型进行模拟,建立了80年代我国图书出版数量模型;经过两种方法检验,说明模型可信,较准确地揭示了我国当代图书出版数量的增长规律;最后还利用所得模型进行了预测,同时发现和证实了作为文献的一种类型的图书的增长也是遵循指数规律的。
The article briefly introduces the gray system theory; obtains the data sequence of the number of books published in our country from 1979 to 1986 by the specific statistics, and simulates the first-order linear differential fitting model to establish the quantity of books published in our country in the 1980s; The test of two methods shows that the model is credible and reveals the law of increasing the number of contemporary books in our country. Finally, the model is used to predict the growth of the books. At the same time, the growth of a book as a type of literature is also found and confirmed Exponential