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本文首先使用信息准则、LR检验及残差Q检验选择能够拟合中国真实GDP季度增长的最优MS-UC模型,检验结果表明三永久机制转换的MS-UC模型拟合最优,从而说明结构变化导致了中国经济周期波动及经济增长的非对称性。从模型估计的结果来看,中国经济周期波动可以划分为与供需管理经济政策相关的三个阶段:1992年第2季度-2007第2季度的高速增长期、2007第3季度-2011第3季度的增长换挡期以及2011第4季度至今的经济新常态时期。将MS-UC模型简化为ARIMA模型后,利用各阶段隐含脉冲响应函数分析经济增长持续性的非对称性特征可知:在供给管理为主的阶段,政策冲击具有显著的长期增长效应;而在需求管理为主的阶段,政策冲击以短期增长效应为主。
This paper first selects the best MS-UC model that can fit the quarterly growth of China’s real GDP using information criterion, LR test and residual Q test. The test results show that the MS-UC model transformed by the three permanent mechanism fits optimally, Changes have led to asymmetries in China’s economic cycle and economic growth. According to the results of the model estimation, the fluctuation of China’s economic cycle can be divided into three stages related to the economic policies of supply and demand management: from the second quarter of 1992 to the rapid growth of the second quarter of 2007, the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2007 The growth of the shift period and the fourth quarter of 2011 so far the economic normal period. After simplifying the MS-UC model to the ARIMA model, using the implicit impulse response function of each stage to analyze the asymmetry of economic growth, it can be seen that the policy shock has significant long-term growth effect in the stage of supply management. In the stage of demand management, policy shocks are dominated by short-term growth.