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从变动趋势看,当前通胀压力较年初有所缓和,保持居民消费价格稳定的因素有所增多今年上半年CPI平均上涨2.6%,分别比年初和上年同期增长3.3个和3.7个百分点,7月份同比上涨3.3%,总体呈走高态势。从影响因素看,翘尾因素影响大于新涨价因素,食品价格涨幅明显大于非食品价格因素,食品价格中天气等季节性涨价因素明显大于非季节性因素。从宏观经济背景看,上半年我国GDP增长11.1%,广义货币供应量增长18.5%,整体看仍属较快增长,特别是狭义货币增长仍然较快,表明前期总需求和货币扩张对价格总水平的影响逐渐释放。
From the trend of change, the current inflationary pressure easing from the beginning of the year, maintaining the stability of consumer prices have increased in the first half of this year, CPI rose an average of 2.6%, respectively, over the previous year and the same period increased by 3.3 and 3.7 percentage points, July An increase of 3.3% over the same period of last year. The overall trend is high. From the influencing factors, the hikes affect more than the new price factors, food prices rose significantly more than non-food price factors, food prices in seasonal prices and other seasonal factors significantly higher than non-seasonal factors. From a macroeconomic background, China’s GDP increased by 11.1% and broad money supply increased by 18.5% in the first half of the year. Growth in the broader sense is still relatively rapid. In particular, the growth in the narrow sense of the currency is still relatively fast, indicating that the aggregate demand and currency expansion in the first half of the year have a negative impact on the overall price level The impact of gradual release.