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以目前房地产贷款余额1/4违规,就意味着全国有4500亿元贷款是违规的,无怪乎中央领导去年下半年以来多次提到,要防止房地产过热,防止房地产出现泡沫; 有些看上去颇具实力的地产大亨,其实,开发的项目却几乎全是银行的钱堆起来的,这种游戏能持续玩下去的前提是建起的房子要能够卖出去。一旦项目空置或烂尾,“以小博大”的游戏就将难以为继,并最终导致银行大量呆坏账: 上个世纪末,日本的房地产泡沫破灭,使得日本商业银行迟迟无法走出巨大的呆帐危机,也使得日本经济的复苏遥遥无期。香港的情况也是如此,目前香港经济迟迟不能够复苏,是与香港房地产泡沫破灭分不开的; 新房贷政策对资产负债率高和自有资金不足的中小企业会有不良影响,从某种意义上可能会促进房地产企业向更大规模聚集。从长远来看,对中国房地产发展有促进作用,未尝不是好事。 请看北京大学国家高新区发展战略研究院张海生、王瑶的评述
At present, the real estate loan balance 1/4 violation means that there are 450 billion yuan of loans across the country is illegal. It is no wonder that the central leadership mentioned many times since the second half of last year to prevent the real estate from overheating and to prevent the real estate bubble; some may seem quite Real estate tycoon, in fact, the project is developed almost all the money banks pile up, this game can continue to play on the premise that the house built to be able to sell. Once the project is vacant or unfinished, the game of “small-to-large” will be unsustainable and will eventually lead to a flood of bad and bad debts: As the end of the last century, the real estate bubble burst in Japan, leaving the Japanese commercial bank unable to walk out of the huge debts Crisis, but also makes Japan’s economic recovery in the foreseeable future. The same is true in Hong Kong. At present, the slow recovery of Hong Kong’s economy is inseparable from the burst of the real estate bubble in Hong Kong. The new mortgage policy will have an adverse effect on the SMEs with high debt-to-asset ratio and insufficient funds. The sense of the real estate business may be able to promote a larger gathering. In the long run, it is not a bad thing to promote the development of real estate in China. Please see Peking University National Hi-tech Zone Development Strategy Institute Zhang Haisheng, Wang Yao’s comments