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在传统的导流风险分析中,较少考虑进度不确定因素,并且没有把各导流时段联系起来分析导流全过程的导流风险.基于此,以锦屏一级水电站大坝施工为背景,将导流过程分为3个时段,分别对进度系统和导流系统进行分析研究,采用进度风险描述进度不确定性因素,采用时段导流风险描述水文和水力不确定因素,并根据进度和导流系统的时间一致性和分段一致性,进行耦合处理,建立概率树分析模型,评价考虑进度不确定性的导流全过程综合风险.揭示进度不确定性因素对导流综合风险的作用关系,为施工组织管理与导流标准的选择提供科学依据.
In the traditional diversion risk analysis, the uncertain factors of progress are seldom considered, and the diversion periods are not linked to analyze the diversion risk of the entire diversion process.Based on this, taking the dam construction of Jinping I Hydropower Station as the background , The diversion process is divided into three periods, respectively, the progress of the system and the diversion system analysis and research, the use of progress risk to describe the progress of uncertainty, the use of the risk of diversion of hydrological and hydraulic uncertainties, and according to the progress and Time consistency and segmentation consistency of the diversion system, coupled processing, the establishment of probability tree analysis model to evaluate the overall risk of the diversion process considering the uncertainty of progress, and the effect of uncertainty of progress on the integrated diversion risk Provide a scientific basis for the selection of construction organization and management and diversion standards.