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日本亚洲经济研究所所长篠原三代平今年初发表《2000年亚太地区产业结构与经济发展》一文,对2000年该地区的经济发展作了预测性分析从1980年人均国民生产总值来看,若日本为1,则香港、新加坡约为1/2,南朝鲜、台湾、马来西亚为1/4,泰国、菲律宾为1/8。如果上述地区在1980至2000年这二十年内能使人均国民生产总值翻一番的话,那么,届时泰国、菲律宾的人均国民生产总值就能达到南朝鲜与台湾1980年的水平,南朝鲜与台湾达到香港与新加坡1980年的水平,而香港与新加坡则可赶上日本目前的水平。如果这一目标能够实现,那么,香港、新加坡等国家(地区)将迈入经济发达国家或地区行列,南朝鲜、台湾则成为经济较发达地区,而泰国,菲律宾则成为中等发达国家,从而使亚太地区摆脱经济欠发达状态。日本曾用十年时间使经济取得飞速发展。十年内虽未使人均收入翻一番,但使国民生产总值翻了一番。要做到这一点,必须使年平均经济增长率达7.2％。上述地区与国家若想使人均国民生产总值在二十年内翻一番,年增长率达3.5～3.6％即可。根据以往经济发展情况来看,上述国家与地区人均国民生产总值年增长率均高于此数。然而,最近一两年,菲律宾政局不隐,经济增长率下降,去年增长率出现负数。印尼也因石油价格下降而使经济受到影响。
Japan’s Institute of Asian Economies, the third generation of Shinohara released early this year, “2000 Asia-Pacific Industrial Structure and Economic Development,” a paper on the 2000 area of economic development made a predictive analysis from 1980 per capita gross national product point of view, If Japan is 1, Hong Kong and Singapore are about 1/2, and South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia 1/4, Thailand and the Philippines 1/8. If the above-mentioned areas double their GNP per capita during the two decades from 1980 to 2000, the per capita GNP of Thailand and the Philippines will reach the level of that of South Korea and Taiwan by 1980, And Taiwan reached Hong Kong and Singapore in 1980 levels, while Hong Kong and Singapore can catch up with the current level in Japan. If this goal can be achieved, then Hong Kong and Singapore will enter the economically developed countries or regions, while South Korea and Taiwan will become more economically developed regions while Thailand and the Philippines have become medium-sized developed countries, so that Asia Pacific region out of economic underdevelopment. Japan used a decade to make its economy grow rapidly. Although the per capita income has not doubled in 10 years, it has doubled the gross national product. To do this, we must make the average annual economic growth rate reach 7.2%. If these regions and countries want to double their GNP per capita within 20 years, they will have an annual growth rate of 3.5 to 3.6%. According to past economic developments, the per capita annual GNP growth rates of these countries and regions are above this figure. However, in the last year or two, the political situation in the Philippines is not hidden, its economic growth rate declines, and the negative growth rate last year. Indonesia is also affected by the drop in oil prices.