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本文提出了预测舞毒蛾危害造成树木失叶的逻辑斯蒂回归模型。数据调查是以100m×100m为一格的小尺度下进行的,回归自变量是卵密度、雄蛾密度、前一年的失叶情况和到前一年最近的失叶格的距离,预测结果是一个失叶概率的分布图。我们用文中模型模拟了目前舞毒蛾综合管理中的防治决策过程,结果表明本文提出的模型在应用于实际的管理决策中是很合适的。
This paper presents a Logistic regression model that predicts the deforestation of trees caused by the damage caused by Gypsy moths. The data survey was conducted on a small scale of 100m × 100m. The regression independent variables were the egg density, male moth density, the leaf loss in the previous year and the distance to the nearest leafage in the previous year. The prediction results Is a map of the probability of leaf loss. We use the model to simulate the prevention and control decision-making process in the current Gypsy moth integrated management. The results show that the proposed model is suitable for practical management decision-making.