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洪灾损失的评估也就是防洪效益的计算。这一防洪经济问题国內外虽有不少研究成果,但并没有公认的好方法,这是因为:首先洪灾的损失缺乏长期、完整、确切的统计资料,而洪水水文特性具有随机性质,所以防洪措施的除害经济效益不同于一般国民经济部门的兴利效益可以用明显的产品价值计算。另一方面,防洪措施的投资带有很大的政策性,并非纯粹的盈利性产业,虽然也必需讲求经济效果,但有别于一般基建工程项目。各国制度不同、国情不同、传统不同,对防洪事业的政策方针和评价方法也就各不相同。下面是波兰水利专家格罗胡尔斯基(Grochulski、T)博士应苏联《水工建设》杂志约稿而撰写的一篇论著,文稿中介了波兰在防洪经济方面应用的一种评估方法,现摘译如后,以飨读者。
Flood damage assessment is the calculation of flood control benefits. Although there are many studies both at home and abroad about this issue of flood control economy, there is no recognized good method because the first is the lack of long-term, complete and accurate statistical data on flood damage, and the flood hydrological characteristics are of a random nature. Therefore, flood control Measures of economic benefits of pest damage is different from the general economic benefits of the national economic sector can be calculated with obvious product value. On the other hand, investments in flood prevention measures are very policy-oriented. They are not purely for-profit industries. Although they must also emphasize economic results, they are different from ordinary infrastructure projects. Different countries have different systems, different national conditions and different traditions, and different policy approaches and evaluation methods for flood prevention are also different. The following is an article written by Dr Grochulski, T, a Polish water expert, in response to the draft of the journal “Hydraulic Construction” in the Soviet Union. The document intervenes in an assessment of Poland’s application of flood control economics. Excerpt after the translation to readers.