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The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 250-km wide in a northwest direction. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg- Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117°line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it yields a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2010, i. e. the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.
The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 250-km The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg-Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117 ° line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2010, ie the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.