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为研究煤尘爆炸最大压力随点火延迟时间的变化规律,采用20 L球形爆炸装置进行试验,通过采集不同点火延迟时间下煤尘爆炸最大压力数据,建立最大压力-点火延迟时间的自回归移动平均(ARIMA)时间序列模型。采用差分法消除最大压力数据的上升趋势性。通过计算自相关、偏相关系数与赤池信息量准则(AIC)函数值、贝叶斯信息量准则(BIC)函数值,确定模型自回归、移动平均阶数,并采用最小二乘法估计模型参数。运用模型预测20组不同点火延迟时间下的最大压力。结果表明,用ARIMA时间序列模型预测的最佳点火延迟时间与实测情况基本吻合,同时实现了对最大压力数据波动特征的合理分析。
In order to study the variation law of the maximum pressure of coal dust explosion with the ignition delay time, a 20 L spherical explosion device was used to test. By collecting the maximum pressure data of coal dust explosion with different ignition delay time, an autoregressive moving average of the maximum pressure-ignition delay time (ARIMA) time series model. Adopt difference method to eliminate upward trend of maximum pressure data. Autocorrelation, partial correlation coefficient, AIC function and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) function were used to determine the model autoregressive and moving average order, and the model parameters were estimated by least square method. The model was used to predict the maximum pressure under 20 different ignition delay times. The results show that the optimal ignition delay time predicted by the ARIMA time series model is in good agreement with the measured data and a reasonable analysis of the fluctuation characteristics of the maximum pressure data is achieved.