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本文采用新经济地理学的分析框架,构建三国贸易均衡模型,将投资和资本存量迭代,模拟出长期各国投资和资本收益的变化趋势,进而分析TPP对相关国家产业发展的影响。数值模拟结果表明:当一国生产成本随着加入TPP而大幅上升时,加入该协定不利于本国经济,而对非TPP国家有利;若一国加入TPP后生产成本仅小幅上升,该国与其他TPP成员国状况都会有所改善,而非TPP国家状况会有所恶化。长期来看,TPP的签署可能会使我国对资本的吸引力降低,不利于国内产业发展。
This article uses the analytical framework of the new economic geography to build the trade equilibrium model of the three countries, iterative investment and capital stock to simulate the long-term trend of investment and return on capital, and then analyze the impact of TPP on the industrial development in the countries concerned. The results of numerical simulation show that when a country’s production cost rises sharply with the addition of TPP, joining the agreement is unfavorable to the domestic economy, which is beneficial to non-TPP countries. If the production cost increases only slightly after a country joins the TPP, The situation in TPP member countries will improve, while the situation in non-TPP countries will deteriorate. In the long run, TPP’s signing may lower our country’s attractiveness to capital and detrimental to the development of domestic industries.