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采用注重动态分析的马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型(MS-VAR)对我国生产性服务业与制造业相互关系进行实证分析,模型自动划分样本为“低相关”和“高相关”两个区制,通过两个区制的动态转换及脉冲影响来挖掘生产性服务业与制造业的互动机制。研究结果表明:1)我国生产性服务业与制造业的互动关系以2004年为分界点分成两种不同的状态,但每种状态下两者都表现出了很强的相关性;2)我国生产性服务业与制造业在2004年之后表现出融合趋势,这种趋势呈相当稳定的状态;3)我国生产性服务业对制造业的影响要大于制造业对生产性服务业的影响。
Empirical analysis of the relationship between producer services and manufacturing industry in China based on the Markov-area transfer vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) emphasizes dynamic analysis. The model is automatically divided into “low correlation” and “high” Relevant "two zones, through the dynamic changes of the two zones and the impact of the pulse to tap the interaction between producer services and manufacturing industries. The results show that: 1) The interactive relationship between producer services and manufacturing industry in China is divided into two different states in 2004 as the cut-off point, but both show a strong correlation in each state; 2) Productive services and manufacturing industries showed the trend of convergence after 2004, which showed a fairly steady trend. 3) The impact of China’s producer services on manufacturing industry was greater than the manufacturing’s impact on producer services.