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本文基于VAR模型,运用协整检验、因果关系检验等计量方法,定量分析政府科技投入与区域产业结构变动之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,政府科技投入与产业结构变动之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,产业结构优化是政府科技投入变动的格兰杰原因。但是在短期内,政府科技投入的提高并没有直接推动产业结构的优化升级。这表明目前政府科技投入的产业结构优化效应并不明显,应该进一步加大政府科技资金投入的力度,优化科技人才队伍,完善区域的科技中介服务体系。
Based on VAR model, this paper uses cointegration test and causality test to quantitatively analyze the dynamic relationship between government investment in science and technology and changes in regional industrial structure. The results show that there is a long-term and stable cointegration relationship between government investment in science and technology and changes in industrial structure. The optimization of industrial structure is the Granger reason for the changes in government investment in science and technology. However, in the short term, the government investment in science and technology did not directly promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. This shows that at present the optimization effect of the industrial structure for government investment in science and technology is not obvious. We should further increase government investment in science and technology, optimize the team of scientists and technologists, and improve the service system for science and technology intermediaries in the region.