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根据电离层球谐函数模型系数的特点以及各系数的重要性,采用改进ARMA模型对其13个系数进行预报。结果表明,基于新模型,将13个预报参数得到的电离层电子含量与欧洲定轨中心生成的电离层含量产品相比,预报精度能达到6TECU,而在中国区域精度则更高,能到达4TECU。选取10个IGS站做单频动态解算,水平方向精度与Klobuchar模型相当,高程方向则略高于Klobuchar模型,改进精度可达15%。
According to the characteristics of ionospheric harmonic coefficients and the importance of the coefficients, an improved ARMA model is used to predict 13 coefficients. The results show that, based on the new model, the forecasting accuracy can reach 6 TECU when the ionospheric electron content obtained from 13 forecast parameters is compared with the ionospheric content generated by the orbiting center in Europe, while the accuracy in China is even higher, reaching 4 TECU . Select 10 IGS stations to do single-frequency dynamic solution, the horizontal direction accuracy is equivalent to Klobuchar model, and the elevation direction is slightly higher than Klobuchar model, improving the accuracy up to 15%.