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长期看,中国要实现工业化进程,至少还需要20—30年的正常增长,也就是保持增速7%—8%左右,才能避免陷入中等收入陷阱。亚洲四小龙一共5000万人口,可以有二三十年的高增长,我们14亿人口至少要60年才能实现充分就业。尽管最近劳动工资上升,我国劳动成本的竞争力仍然存在。目前消费的贡献率也刚刚开始上升,储蓄率达到历史最高的50%,储蓄率若降下来对消费将有很大的拉动。我们农民收入还不到农民工的一半,这说明我们
In the long run, if China wants to achieve industrialization, it will still need at least 20 to 30 years of normal growth, that is, it will maintain a growth rate of 7% -8% to avoid falling into the middle-income trap. The four Asian dragons, a total of 50 million people, have a high growth rate in 20 to 30 years and our 1.4 billion people need at least 60 years to achieve full employment. Despite the recent rise in labor wages, the competitiveness of our labor costs still exists. At present, the contribution rate of consumption has just begun to rise. The saving rate has reached 50% of the highest level in history. If the saving rate is lowered, it will have a great stimulus on consumption. We farmer income of less than half of migrant workers, which shows us